There are several ways in which the aforementioned hypothesis can be tested.

Just as young smokers, who mostly value the "suave image" they project toward their peers, err miserably with regard to their own long term physical and mental health, so too do young students overestimate the true long term value of their English language studies.

The analogy between English language learning and nicotine addiction should not be exaggerated, however, because the two "addictions" work in different ways. Whereas it is difficult for the young smoker to quit his addiction as he grows older; depending on his true need for the English language, the young student will find it far easier to shed his addiction for English. The reasons for this are straight forward.

• Firstly, the smoker's addiction is physical. Even if he wants to quit, it is extremely stressful to do so. English language addiction, on the other hand, is psychological and depends largely on accumulated personal habits and social pressure. These can be more easily dismissed with a proper understanding of the English language addiction on the part of everyone.
  
  
• Secondly, the addiction of the young smoker is internally reinforcing. This is to say, smoking one cigarette encourages the smoking of another because of the presence of nictotine. No positive social reinforcement from the outside is required to maintain the addiction, once it has begun. Studying English on the other hand is an entirely socio-psychological phenomenon that depends on social reinforcement - this is especially true for spoken English. As a result, the student's addiction can be more easily set aside in the absence of positive personal, social, and/or governmental reinforcement.

While making an effort not to repeat the several points already outlined in the aforementioned discussion paper (pdf 136 K) let us examine more closely why the attrition rate of English language ability is a reasonable test for false need.

• Once learned there are few of us, who forget how to swim or ride a bicycle. Surely those who have not swum or ridden for a very long time cannot climb onto a bicycle or into a pool with the same self-assuredness they once did. This is not to say that the "old" feeling of confidence cannot be retrapped, however. Depending upon one's "new" physical condition, the "old" feeling will likely require at least some effort to restore.
  
  
• Though one may argue that language training is like bicycle riding or swimming, because the same or similar patterns are practiced many times in a wide variety of circumstances, we must be careful not to over extend the analogy. Once you have learned a language, it requires far more conscious effort to maintain than does either bicycle riding or swimming. Moreover, one can learn the basics of these latter activities in a few days; after that it is just a matter of practice. This is not true of language. Though like riding a bicycle or swimming each word or grammatical pattern must be practiced many times before it is fully mastered, the number of linguistic patterns that must be acquired to become conversant is far greater than those of either bicycle riding or swimming. Language learning is more akin to a baby learning how to walk. In the beginning the baby's motor skills are completely undeveloped. Moreover, most students who acquire a second or foreign language only receive enough practice to crawl. Few ever learn to stand, let alone walk or run!
  
  
• If what remains in the student's mind after he has graduated is insufficient, it can actually serve as a barrier to communication between him and his foreign guest. For in his effort to make up for his linguistic deficiency and international pride, he frustrates his guest's own attempts to acquire his host's language. (See discussion paper under the headings Pride of Speech, Holding foreigners at bay, and More on mirror dynamics.)

Positive and negative rates of attrition for individuals and entire populations are likely to indicate entirely different things.

• Unlike smoking whose ill effects with continued use are likely to increase over time, language "addiction" can lead to greater positive net benefits. Through constant use one's ability improves. This is because more communication leads to better communication. Thus, where tobacco often ends on a dire note in the long run, language learning can be a rewarding lifetime experience. Consequently, the individual rates of language attrition in a population in which both artificial and true need are present are likely to diverge dramatically. Whereas a zero rate of attrition for a particular individual would indicate a condition of active maintenance, for an entire population such an interpretation would be highly misleading.
  
  In order to account for the divergence in individual ability the frequency and duration of language use must be measured simultaneously with language competence.
  
  
• Though a significant positive attrition rate (deterioration in language ability) would be important evidence for the presence of language disuse and thus an overvalued national asset, it would not necessarily indicate the presence of a linguistic barrier. Providing evidence for a linguistic barrier requires additional investigation.
  

In summary, with respect to an entire population we would expect

• high rates of positive attrition (language deterioration) to be correlated with widespread English language disuse.
• zero rates of attrition with moderate or mixed language use, and
• negative rates of attrition (improved language ability) with widespread active use.

Accordingly, we would not expect the rate of attrition, either positive or negative, to be uniform across the entire population. Rather, we would expect certain high-profile sectors of the population to demonstrate very high rates of negative attrition, else how could the universal needs myth be perpetuated.