Introduction
In
the previous section we learned that a distinct majority, about 80% of
all Hong Kong's who are actively employed and familiar with computers,
are also familiar with a Chinese input method. In this section we learn
that, although a growing industry as a whole, the IT&T industry and
its impact on the UEL requirement is complex. Moreover, depending on
how the industry is viewed, vary different conclusions can be drawn.
Also mportant to note is that IT&T only constituted 4.2 percent of
Hong Kong's entire economy in 2002 and that nearly all of IT&T's
recent growth has been in distribution -- mainly trade with the Chinese
mainland. Furthermore, where IT&T could add the most to Hong Kong's
productivity economic activity has been both weak and flat. Finally,
the big IT&T domestic drivers appears to be big business and
irresponsible government.
So
what is new?
Read on, and
find out what IT&T and the English language have in common in Hong
Kong's fledgling, ha-ha, undemocratic democracy! There is more
to democracy than highly visible demonstrations!
Index
Discussion
and Explanation
Hong
Kong's Information Technology and Telecommunication Industry
The industry that makes an information society possible
A macroeconomic overview
What
households,
governments, schools, and businesses only use industries produce.
Thus, rising demand for information technology and telecommunication
equipment is a boon for economies that produce this technology.
Economies that
trade in this technology can also benefit.
A
recent report
released by the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department divides the
information technology and telecommunication industry (IT&T) into
five major sub-industries including manufacturing, installation and
maintenance, distribution, and two kinds of services -- information
technology services and telecommunication services.1 These five subindustries together
accounted for about 4.2 percent (see graph
98 - new window) of Hong Kong's total economic output in 2002 --
somewhat
less than that of its over-touted tourist
industry.2 Graph
100 (new window) shows how
these five sub-industries were distributed across the larger industry.
In order of importance telecommunication services accounted
for nearly half of IT&T's total contribution to GDP, IT
distribution about
one third, and information technology services well under a quarter.
Nearly all of the growth from 2000 to 2002 took place in IT
distribution (see graph
98 - new window). Information technology services actually receded
as a proportion of total economic output. Although the impact of IT
distribution growth on those who work in this subindustry must be
phenomenal, except for what one hears in the media and reads
in the popular press, the economic impact for most Hong Kongers must
give rise to a big yawn (see graph
99 -
new window). Certainly many
Hong Kong students eager to capture a
portion of the industry's burgeoning wealth (see graph
113 - new window) were excited. So, besides being able to trade one's
favorite pics, music,
and email between friends nearly instantaneously, and to disturb everyone around you with
telephone calls beamed in from anywhere at anytime from friends and
strangers largely alien to the social situation into which they
intrude, what has
generated all the excitement?
Also, what has much,
or any of this, to do with the English language? Looking at pictures,
listening to music, reading email, and talking with one's friends in a
society 97% dominated by usual languages other than English require
zero command of English. Indeed, when it comes to IT distribution --
the only IT&T industry that is truly growing -- the story is little
different: Hong Kongers distributing to other Hong Kongers (see Service at
home, service abroad, and the difference it can make) and Hong Kongers servicing Hong Kong's re-export trade.
The external economy
Should we
expect
Hong Kong's external trade pattern in IT&T goods and services to
exhibit important differences from Hong Kong's external trade pattern
in other goods and services as a whole? Well, no, but then again, yes.
In general, Hong Kong's role as an entrepot between the Chinese
mainland and the rest of the world should not change dramatically when
it comes to IT&T. Nevertheless, who produces and consumes IT&T
products will impact the pattern of trade and as a result the need for
the English language in both domestic and overseas trade.
In 2002 computers
and computer related hardware made up nearly three quarters of Hong
Kong's overseas trade in IT&T products. Telecommunication equipment
constituted just over 25 percent, and computer software accounted for a
mere 1.2 percent. (See graph
111 - new window). Although we find a general pattern of growth in both the import and re-export of IT&T products, the overall pattern is higher and more consistent growth with the Chinese mainland. With the exception of 2000, for which a sudden additional burst of growth was recorded, Hong Kong imports from the Chinese mainland grew steadily. (See graph 110a - new window.) In contrast, Hong Kong imports from other countries, although generally higher at the end of the period, were erratic, reflecting what appears to be a temporary falling out after the transfer of Hong Kong sovereignty from London to Beijing in 1997. Imports from the mainland, although less than those from other countries, made up about a third of all IT&T products imported. Re-exports to the Chinese mainland rose steadily, outperforming re-exports to other countries considerably. (See graph 110b - new window.) In 2002 re-exports to
the Chinese mainland were easily more than double what they were when
sovereignty was transferred. In contrast re-exports to all other areas
of the world increased by only about 37 percent.3 Moreover, re-exports to the Chinese mainland constituted more than 40 percent of all Hong Kong IT&T re-exports.4
Looking only at computer and computer-related hardware, re-exports to
the Chinese mainland and Singapore accounted for more than 50 percent
of all re-exports.5
Comparing Hong Kong's IT&T re-export trade with all other re-export
trade between the years 1997 and 2002 is even more revealing. Between
1997 and 2002 the value of Hong Kong's re-export merchandise trade
increased by 14.9 percent, while the value of this same trade to the
Chinese mainland increased by 28.8 percent (see graph
49c - new window).6, 7 During this period the total value of
IT&T re-exports increased by 73.8 percent, and the value of
IT&T re-exports to the mainland increased by 174.5 percent (see graph 110b - new window).8
Thus, not only was re-export trade with the Chinese mainland growing
faster than re-export trade in general, but re-export trade in IT&T
accelerated that disparity. May we not conclude from this that Hong
Kong's IT&T re-export trade is reducing the need for the English
language, rather than increasing? Not just yet!9
The external and domestic
economies juxtaposed
Graphs 104
and 106
(new windows) reflect Hong Kong's overseas trade in IT&T as it
affects the local economy. The green and purple lines in graph
104 (new window) are both similar and different for several
reasons. Firstly, both reflect only goods or goods and services trade
that are imported. Secondly, whereas the green line compares only
merchandise goods, the purple line compares merchandise goods with both
goods and services. Thirdly, whereas the green line compares IT&T
retained imports (goods manufactured outside of Hong Kong but consumed
in Hong Kong) with all imported and retained merchandise, the
purple line compares all IT&T imported goods with all imported
goods and services. Finally, both lines compare Hong Kong IT&T
merchandise imports with all other Hong Kong goods or goods and
services imports. Because the purple line utilises a larger base --
both goods and services, as opposed to only goods -- for comparison,
one would expect it to lie below the green line in a fairly uniform
manner. As this is not the case, there is important need for
reflection. Between 1997 and 2002 we observe an overall rise in
IT&T products both as a proportion of retained imports (green line)
and as a proportion of total imported goods and services (purple line).
During the years 2000 and
2001, however, there was a sudden surge in the value of imported
IT&T
merchandise goods retained for either consumption or investment --
nearly 20% in 2001. Thus, between 2000 and 2001 surely someone in Hong
Kong besides traders had good reason to be excited.
Like the green
and purple lines in graph
104 (new window), the green and blue lines in graph
106 (new window) are both similar and different in several respects. Nevertheless, an entirely different story is told. Firstly, both lines reflect only goods or goods and services that are exported. Secondly, whereas the green line compares only merchandise goods, the blue line compares merchandise goods with both goods and services. Thirdly, where as the green line compares IT&T domestic exports (merchandise manufactured in Hong Kong and sold abroad) with all domestic exports, the blue line compares all IT&T exports with all goods and services exports. Finally, both lines compare Hong Kong IT&T merchandise exports with all other Hong Kong goods, or goods and service exports. What we observe is very telling. Although Hong Kong did manufacture a portion of what it sold overseas (green line) the portion is both small and not growing, this despite the much larger and ever growing role that IT&T merchandise play in Hong Kong's overall export picture (blue line).
In summary,
growth in Hong Kong IT&T has meant increasing
consumption and trade, perhaps even enhanced productivity as a result
of that consumption, but little contribution with regard to product
innovation and manufacture of IT&T products. Insofar as Hong Kong
spends so much on tertiary education and places so much emphasis on
IT&T in the media, these results are very disappointing. So, let us take a closer look, and see
where all the hype is coming from.
The microeconomic landscape
Placing
manufacturing and the installation and maintenance of IT&T products
aside let us concentrate on the big three subindustries of Hong Kong's
IT&T industrial grouping -- namely, telecommunication services,
information technology services, and last but by no means least, IT
distribution. Graphs 100
and 101a (new windows) compare the proportional
contribution of each of these industries to Hong Kong's GDP with their
proportional contribution to Hong Kong's employed work force in 2002.
Telecommunication services
Whereas
telecommunication services accounted for nearly half of
IT&T's contribution to GDP in 2002 (graph
100 - new window), these same services employed only about a
quarter of IT&Ts total labor force (graph 101a - new window), and ranked third among
Hong Kong's big three IT&T industries in terms of remuneration to
workers (see graph 101b - new window). In contrast,
telecommunication services profits in 2002 were the highest among
IT&T's big three industries and more than double those of the next
best performing industry (see graph 102a - new window). What is driving the
telecommunication services industry is best captured in graph 102b (new window), where it soon becomes
obvious that Hong Kong big money is serving itself at the expense of
the Hong Kong general public. In short, big money goes in (graph 102b - new window), big money comes out (graph 102a - new window), big money points to
improved overall economic performance (graph
100 - new window), and high Hong Kong government officials ensure
themselves still another year of extraordinary personal income.
In the end Hong Kong citizens are left
holding their foolish technological and international pride in their
hands or around their necks in the form of more technical gadgetry that
likely deteriorates just as much as it contributes to an overall better
public environment.10 Accordingly, it is not big money and
high-level government that commutes to and from work and leisure
activity in crowded buses and mass-transit railway cars where mobile
telephony reigns in total anarchy. On the other hand, it is big money
and high-level government that is quick to promote expansion of both
forms of transportation, so as to remove traffic congestion and make it
easier for themselves to get from one penthouse to the next in their
chauffeured limousines.
Once again,
what does any of this have to do with the English language?
It is the same story told over and over. Those who use this gadgetry
most are native Hong Kongers communicating with other native Hong
Kongers in Cantonese. In contrast, a small minority of wealthy Hong
Kongers educate their children in prestigious private Hong Kong or
overseas schools and universities, so that they might one day be able
to speak English well enough to negotiate the importation of even more
gadgetry in the name of economic progress and international
competition. In the end technology, like most things in life, can be
productively used or abused. Anarchy is not freedom!
Information technology services
Before moving
onto IT distribution, the truly virulent sector of Hong
Kong's IT&T growth sector (see graph
98), let us take a look at Hong Kong's IT&T complement to
telecommunication services -- namely, information technology services.
IT services include that one area of IT&T industrial development
that has the potential to contribute most to overall economic
productivity, for it is in this category of economic activity where new
software is produced, and new and old software are customized and
recombined to meet the specific organizational needs of each business,
government agency, and academic department.
In graph
100 (new window) we observe that IT services' direct contribution
to Hong Kong's gross domestic product was under 15 percent of Hong
Kong's IT&T total in 2002; indeed, IT services were the lowest
contributor among Hong Kong's big three IT&T industries!11 Although
this potentially more productive subindustry employed nearly as many
workers as the rapacious telecommunication services industry (graph 101a - new window), it demonstrated only
little or negative growth in output (graph
98 - new window).12
Employment figures for 2002 were somewhat higher than those for 2000,
but new industry hires amounted to an annual average of under one half
of one percent.13
Though better paid than telecommunication services workers (graph 101b - new window), IT services' total
contribution to Hong Kong workers' incomes was the lowest among Hong
Hong's three principal IT&T subindustries (graph 101c - new window). This overall scenario
reflects well, but with better detail, what we previously observed with
regard to Hong Kong IT&T's domestic exports (graph
106 - new window). In short, if Hong Kongers were truly innovative
at home, they could be exporting that innovation overseas. The amount
of capital earned for each Hong Kong dollar paid to IT service workers
was the lowest of all five subindustries (graph
103 - new window)! Just think how much better off Hong Kong would be, if more capital were invested in this critical industry!
Insofar
as most software development in the world
probably uses at least some form of English as its base, this tiny,
vital, but neglected industry is one of the best candidates for
secondary and tertiary school graduates with a solid foundation in the
English language. Nevertheless, as an army of innovation and industrial
networking this industry accounts for only 0.61 percent of Hong Kong's
entire work force.14
Information technology and
telecommunication industrial distribution15
So what are Hong Kongers truly good
at, if not providing other peoples' innovation to others. Indeed, of
Hong Kong's five IT&T subindustries IT&T distribution is the
only industry that demonstrated recent significant economic growth. In
2000 IT&T distribution's net contribution to Hong Kong's GDP was
0.8%; by 2002 it was contributing nearly double that amount at 1.4% (graph
98 - new window).
Although barely noticed in most Hong Kongers pocketbooks, for those
working in and around IT&T as a whole, things were truly happening.
Indeed, not only did IT&T distribution account for a full third of
IT&T's total contribution to Hong Kong's GDP, but it also captured
more than one third of IT&T's total employment.16, 17
Moreover, as a small user of capital in 2002 (graph 102b - new window), it was a very large
earner (graph 102a - new window). Unlike their
telecommunication services counterparts IT&T distribution
entrepreneurs also appear to have shared their success with their
workers (graph 103 - new window), who in turn received on
average the highest wages of all IT&T sub-industries (graph 101b - new window). In short, for an economy that prides
itself, however falsely, in its individual and economic freedoms and
international reputation, IT&T distribution was on spot.18
Of course,
making this euphoria relevant to Hong Kong's universal English language
requirement is an entirely different matter for two very good reasons:
one, half of Hong Kong's external trade in IT&T products is with
the Chinese mainland, where the English language is of little use; and
two, domestic distribution caters to a population that on any given day
is nearly 90% native in the Cantonese language (see graph
52a (new window) and Hong Kong's
tourist industry). Thus, we have returned to ground
zero (new window), and perhaps worse. Employment in IT&T
distribution actually fell by 3.4% between 2000 and 2002. Then too,
less than 1% of all Hong Kong workers worked in this obviously highly
touted industry.19, 20
IT&T in government,
business, and education
Distribution of information technology workers government and
industry
Having
examined Hong Kong's IT&T industry as an industry unto itself, as
well as a component of Hong Kong's macroeconomy, let us now see how
IT&T workers are distributed across Hong Kong's business and
government sectors. In graph 114b (new window) we discover that about 70%
of all information technology workers are found in industries where
analytical, clerical, and sales people are likely to be abundant,
including finance, insurance, real estate, business services, and
software vending, as well as the wholesale, retail, and import and
export trades. Over 10% of IT workers are also found among the
community, social, and personal service industries. Ironically, but
perhaps not surprisingly, one of the biggest advocates of information
technology demonstrates a clear shortfall in the number of IT workers
that it employs. In 2002 the Hong Kong government accounted for about
8.1 percent of all Hong Kong workers (graph 108c - new window), but it hosted only 3.9
percent of Hong Kong's entire IT work force (graphs 108b and 114b - new windows).21 This probable shortcoming is
particularly alarming, when one compares it with what has happened in
the community, social, and personal service industries during the past
decade (graph 114a - new window). Between 1993 and 2002
the number of IT workers employed in the community, social, and
personal service industries more than tripled with an average annual
growth rate of 37.5 percent! In contrast, the number of IT workers in
government increased at an average annual rate of only 8.2%, well below
the overall average annual rate of increase for the entire IT&T
industry.22
Is
government practicing what it preaches? Hardly.
Does government suffer from a handicap? Most certainly. It is a highly
paid advertising puppet of Hong Kong big business with a vastly
constrained budget.23
Government
expenditure on IT education
In
so far as
teachers make up nearly one third of the Hong Kong government's total
work force the government's below market performance is difficult to
commend.24
Graphs 112a and 112b (new windows) suggest that the government is
going all out in providing Hong Kong children with the IT training they
will need for eventual entry into an information-based society. Surely
some Hong Kong students will receive that training, many others will
not (See Dawn or dusk in the Age of
Information). Moreover, where the money is actually going is
difficult to say; Hong Kong's secondary computer science teachers are
among Hong Kong's worst qualified (table 6 - new window).
Finally, even if Hong Kong children are the largest beneficiaries of
government money spent on IT education and training as graph 112b
(new window) suggests, what about the rest of government and its
overall role in serving the people of Hong Kong? Education is not only
area of government service.
On the one
hand, Hong Kongers can sympathize with their government,
because its educational budget by industrially developed world
standards is truly inferior (graph 18
- new window); on the other hand, as the mouth piece of Hong Kong big
business and the recipient of extraordinary salaries (graph
79 - new window) Hong Kong government, and the Education and
Manpower Bureau in particular, are hardly innocent bystanders in what
transpires. Required, of course, is higher taxes on those who can
afford to pay them (graph 36c - new window) and across the board
salary cuts for those who might otherwise benefit from them. Obviously,
neither will occur, so long as those in power continue to cater to the
needs of those who feed them, rather than the people whom they are
suppose to serve.
Conclusion
Truly,
achieving democracy in Hong
Kong will require much more than standing up to Beijing and showing the
world you care on world television. Certainly it will require more than
attracting increased tourist
revenue (see Throwing good money after bad - pdf
document 56KB) and new overseas investment (graph 43c
- new window).
In order to achieve democracy in Hong Kong stripping away the many facades behind which the people of Hong Kong wrongly hide (see Hong Kong's Window Dressers - pdf document 40KB)
in an effort
to protect what can be easily labelled foolish international pride (see
Global aspirations and healthful perspiration - pdf document
52KB) and a vain celebration of
individual freedoms commercially exploited by Hong Kong's wealthy
elite. Working together means putting aside one's group identity in
favour of one's community (see The Swimmer, Part II - pdf document
24KB). It means placing one's family on an equal footing with one's
neighbors (see Global
aspirations and healthful perspiration - pdf document 52KB). Moreover, it requires setting aside envious desires, presumptuous airs, and debilitating feelings of inferiority. Finally, filling one's pockets with the means to take flight should political necessity command and spending one's last dime, as if there were no tomorrow, may contribute to the local economy, but these do little or nothing to insure a secure political future. Living in a foreign culture -- no matter's whose culture it might be -- is not an easy task (See Rebound? - pdf document 56KB).
What Hong
Kong's information society and Hong Kong's UEL requirement
share in common are the same limited and exploitative governmental
bureaucracy that makes Hong Kong education so deplorable (graph
78 - new window). What they also share in common are the same vain
hopes, misguided aspirations, and false sense of community encouraged
and exploited by Hong Kong's self-serving elite.
Indeed, false
pride and envy appear to be Hong Kongers two worst
enemies in overcoming the unbridled commercial, intellectual, and
political arrogance of Hong Kong's industrial and financial elite and
misguided universal English language requirement.